Study Indicates that Rising Carbon Emissions Could Threaten Future Wind Power Potential in East Asia

Abstract
Wind power, which is the fastest–growing renewable energy source, is directly influenced by weather or climate conditions. This study examined the recent changes and future projections under different carbon emission levels in the wind power potential (Wpot) over East Asia using the ERA5 datasets and high–resolution multiple regional climate models (RCMs). Because wind conditions are constantly changing, we employed the wind velocity range–based approach for estimating the Wpot using the shortest time interval data available, which is the three–hourly wind velocity. Seasonal Wpot climatology of area–averaged Wpot over East Asia was the highest in spring. The average Wpot showed the highest values in northern China and southern Mongolia throughout all seasons, while recent changes in the Wpot over East Asia were characterized by overall increases in spring, autumn, and winter, but a decrease in summer. However, there were large regional variabilities. Northern China and southern Mongolia are expected to remain significant regions with high Wpot in the future. This is due to the large contribution of the frequency of optimal wind conditions, ranging from 12 m s−1 to 25 m s−1, to the Wpot in these regions, both currently and in the future. The average future Wpot in East Asia is expected to show no significant changes in both the low and the highest carbon emission scenarios compared to the present. However, it is projected that regional disparities in the Wpot will increase in a scenario with enhanced emission by the end of the 21st century.

As the world grapples with the effects of climate change, a recent study has shed light on the potential impacts of climate warming in East Asia on the regional future wind power potential (Wpot).

Led by Professor Dong-Hyun Cha from the Department of Civil, Urban, Earth, and Environmental Engineering at UNIST, the research team published their findings in an international academic journal, highlighting the effects of warming on wind power potential in East Asia through the development of high–resolution climate models.

The study utilized numerical models alongside the global climate models (GCMs) to create detailed climate projections for East Asia, assessing the Wpot under various carbon emission scenarios.

Findings indicate that northern China and southern Mongolia emerge as the regions with the highest Wpot climatology within East Asia, primarily due to the relatively significant contribution of 12 m s-1 to 25 m s-1 wind velocity range, which is optimal for wind power generation, to the future Wpot in these regions.

For the Korean Peninsula, Wpot is expected to increase in a scenario with enhanced emissions by the middle of the 21st century, but it is likely to diminish by the end. Notably, if carbon emissions continue to escalate, there are concerns that wind power potential in the autumn months may decline. Moreover, the study predicts that regional disparities in the Wpot will increase in a scenario with enhanced emission across East Asia by the end of the 21st century.

“At a time when major East Asian nations are increasing their reliance on renewable energy sources such as wind power in response to international initiatives like the Paris Agreement and RE100, this research can serve as a policy guide for identifying optimal locations to enhance wind power generation efficiency,” said Research Professor Changyong Park, the first author of the study.

This research was conducted as part of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project, which aims to provide future climate information at a regional scale using advanced numerical modeling techniques. CORDEX is managed by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). UNIST has been an active participant in this project since 2013.

Professor Cha emphasized, “We will continue to advance high-resolution climate models to proactively address climate change across various sectors, including renewable energy.”

The findings of this study have been published in the October 2024 issue of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, a leading journal in the field of green and sustainable technology. This research received support from the Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through the Climate Change R&D Project for New Climate Regime, funded by the Ministry of Environment (MOE), as well as the Korea Meteorological Institute (KMI) of the Korea Meteorological Administration.

Journal Reference

Changyong Park, Seok-Woo Shin, Dong-Hyun Cha, “Impact of global warming on wind power potential over East Asia,” Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., (2024).